Parent Layer: Conservation and Resiliency Analysis - 1 meter of SLR by 2100 Scenario

Name: Storm Surge Exposure to Hurricane Katrina like event in 2100

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Description: The data used for this analysis consisted of US census 2000 blockgroups for the states of Mississippi and Alabama that intersected with the boundary of the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR) study area boundary. The sea-level rise data was derived from the SLAMM 1m of sea-level rise by 2100 scenarios, where all areas of the estuarine water category were extracted from the predicted 2100 landcover scenario. The storm surge data was derived from the ADCIRC model scenario data for the year 2100 representing a storm surge scenario similar to hurricane Katrina in 2005 amplified with 1m of sea-level rise in the year 2100 based on Low (<5%), Moderate (5%-15%) and High (>15%) percent of block group area inundated. The overland storm surge scenario in the year 2100 was used for the analysis, representing the maximum potential height of storm surge in feet over land areas in Grand Bay, which was a product produced from the original ADCIRC model data. The method used for this analysis consisted of determining the extent of areas that would be flooded by 1m of sea-level rise and by a storm surge scenario amplified by 1m of sea-level rise and then determining the percent of each census blockgroups that would potentially be inundated by each hazard type. The sea-level rise data was created by extracting all pixels classified as estuarine water in the predicted 2100 landcover scenario and then converting the extracted pixels to vector polygons. The polygons were then overlapped with the census blockgroup polygons using the intersect tool in ArcGIS, where the areas of overlap were extracted as a new layer. The area for the resulting overlapping polygons was calculated and then summed for all overlapping polygons within each census blockgroup to determine the total area of each blockgroup potentially inundated by sea-level rise. A similar method was employed for determining the extent of each blockgroup that would be exposed to a storm surge with 1m of sea-level rise. All pixels representing overland storm surge in the storm surge scenario image were reclassified as the same value and then converted to a vector polygon representing all areas that would be potential inundated by storm surge. The intersect tool in ArcGIS was used to determine all areas of overlap between the extent of overland storm surge and the census blockgroups. The area of the overlapping areas were calculated and then summed for each blockgroup to determine the percent of each blockgroup that would potentially be inundated by the storm surge amplified by 1m of sea-level rise. Using a 5 natural jenk method. <a href='xml/gulfmex_MS_GBN_StormSurgeExposure_1mSLR_2100.xml' target='_blank'><b>Metadata</b><a></br>

Copyright Text: The Nature Conservancy

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