Parent Layer: Conservation and Resiliency Analysis - 1 meter of SLR by 2100 Scenario

Name: Community Resilience in 2100

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Description: This analysis combines the Community Risk Analysis and Marsh Viability Analysis to identify communities that might be least (or most) resilient based on a communitys social vulnerability, exposure to storm surge, and the viability of marsh systems within each block group. Marsh systems offer many ecosystem services to human communities such as preventing shoreline erosion, storm surge buffering, increasing water quality, and fish habitat. This analysis assumes that communities are more resilient if they have lower social vulnerability, are less exposed to storm surge inundation and have marsh systems that can either maintain or increase in size 1 meter of with sea level rise by the year 2100.There are many locally-dependent factors that make a community more or less resilient to natural hazards, and some of these nuances cannot be captured with census block group level data, nor do viable marsh systems alone create more resilient human communities. This analysis should be interpreted as a demonstration of how coastal hazard risk information can be combined with ecosystem viability data to inform conservation planning activities that benefit both human and natural communities. Furthermore, the census data used in this analysis reflects conditions for the year 2000, the year for which this data was most recently available. This analysis is limited in that it compared socioeconomic conditions for the year 2000 with future inundation scenarios without modeling how the social landscape might change over the next 80 years. Projecting future socioeconomic conditions was beyond the scope of this work, and other published studies have had similar temporal limitations (e.g. Hallegatte et al. 2011, Frazier et al. 2010, and Zhang 2001). Ultimately, this analysis is intended to help coastal managers and decision makers plan for and respond to future changes, by illustrating how future climate-enhanced coastal hazards can impact communities throughout the Galveston Bay region. The Community Resilience Analysis used in this study is one example of how socioeconomic and ecological information can be integrated with coastal hazards data to characterize community resilience. Using an indexing method similar to that which was used in the Community Risk Analysis, the combined marsh viability and community risk indices were classified on a 1-5, low to high, scale using an if-then logic model where communities with low risk and high marsh viability would be considered most resilient (e.g. 5) and communities with high risk and low marsh viability would be considered least resilient (e.g. 1). It is also important to note that only block groups that currently contain marsh distribution were considered in this analysis. <a href='xml/gulfmex_TX_GBJC_CommunityResilience_1mSLR_2100.xml' target='_blank'><b>Metadata</b><a></br>

Copyright Text: The Nature Conservancy

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Spatial Reference: 102100  (3857)

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