Parent Layer: Conservation and Resiliency Analysis - 1 meter of SLR by 2100 Scenario

Name: Storm Surge Exposure to simulated Cat 1 hurricane event in 2006

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Description: This file was created for The Nature Conservancy's Sea Level Rise Project for the northern Gulf of Mexico with funding from the Coastal Bend Bays and Estuary Program (CBBEP). This dataset shows the percentage of each census block group in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas that are potentially exposed to storm surge from a simulated category 1 hurricane under initial conditions in 2006. The map represents the extent of storm surge inundation that might occur under a simulated category 1 hurricane based on predicted landcover maps of Corpus Christi Bay, Texas using the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) based on Low (<5%), Moderate (5%-15%) and High (>15%) percent of block group area inundated. The landcover maps used for the study area were derived from Sea Level Rise Affecting Marsh Model (SLAMM) using the 1m of sea-level rise by 2100 scenario which predict how marshes might migrate inland due to increasing sea levels.This modeling effort was motivated by the need to provide a series of technical tools to the members of the Coastal Bend Bays and Estuary Program (CBBEP) to better understand the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge in the Corpus Christi region. The implementation of the ADCIRC model for SLR analysis complements the information produced by previous studies conducted by The Nature Conservancy (TNC). The products provided as part of this effort will help coastal managers, scientist and the conservation community in identifying the additional threat posed by storm surge given one meter of SLR by 2100 in the study area. This project has been funded through grants from the Coastal Bend Bays and Estuary Program. The intent of this project is to utilize the SLAMM data to analyze the effects of future landscapes and SLR on storm surge. Future landscapes include changes in land cover type and coastal subsidence. The land cover changes are implemented by utilizing the available SLAMM output information. Subsidence is accounted for by applying a region wide value assumed in the SLAMM analyses (Warren Pinnacle Consulting). A SLR rate of one meter by 2100 is analyzed for this study for 2050 and 2100 conditions. Three scenarios of SLR were analyzed using the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model; the model evaluated the initial conditions in 2004 and future 2050 and 2100 scenarios under SLR. ADCIRC is a physics based, unstructured mesh finite element model, solving the shallow water equations for time dependent, free surface circulation problems (Luettich et al. 2004). ADCIRC is commonly applied for tidal studies, including hurricane storm surge and flooding applications by state and federal agencies throughout the United States. All maps and coordinates in this report are referenced to the NAD83 horizontal datum and NAVD88 vertical datum. <a href='xml/gulfmex_TX_CC_StormSurgeExposure_2006.xml' target='_blank'><b>Metadata</b><a></br>

Copyright Text: The Nature Conservancy

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